Monday, August 21, 2006

Social Networks + Forecasting = Prediction Markets!!

In a recent feature, BusinessWeek has covered the emergence and adoption of prediction markets by enterprises to significantly improve their forecasting ability. Instead of getting a single business manager to do the forecasts in the conventional model, firms have started to create a prediction market, where groups of employees have an opportunity to participate in the market, and hopefully lead to more accurate forecasts on product sales, consumer interest in new offers, etc. The employees get paid in cash or kind as an incentive to get it right, and this puts the power back to the employees who are knolwdge able, but who don't voice their opinion, costing enterprises lost opportunities!

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